Beware the son-in-law

Such are the unfortunate dramas of Arab political life. The region is devoid of any thoughtful and meaningful democratic institutions. Tiny Lebanon holds elections, but is dominated by a patronage system that favors wealthy and established families (Hariri, Gemayale, Jumblatt, ect...). Kuwait is better with elections based on one-person, one-vote (compared to Lebanon’s sect-representation system), but the parliament is still encumbered by the royal family which only allows so much accountability and self-government.

Arabs living under republican forms of government (all authoritarian) used to mock the system of family secession that ruled in the monarchs. But now these very same party regimes where leadership was supposed to be decided by party votes where strong candidates would emerge have descended into the same game of family patronage. Nasser, Sadat and Mubraka (the three past leaders of Egypt) had no blood line between them. But Egypt’s next president may very well be the son of Mubarak: Gamal Mubarak.

Lebanese politics is also dictated by family succession. The assassinated of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri brought his (second) son Sa’ad to politics and the young and inexperienced Sa’ad is now prime minister. Walid Jumblatt, head of the Druze community, is grooming his son to succeed him. The Gemayale family is one brother or son taking over after another and the Phalange party has remained under Gemayle control since being founded by grandfather Pierre. Only Hezbollah, the main Shiite bloc, does not contain such blatant family succession.

In Libya, it is the same story: Qaddaffi is grooming his son Saif for power.

Given such politics, one can understand the despair Arabs feel about their regional leaders.

Tunisia’s is also new to the game of family succession. The current president Ben Ali (in power since ‘86 and just reelected to a fifth term at the age of 73) overthrew in a medical coup the then senile founding president of the republican Habib Bourguiba. The only relation is that Ben Ali was his prime minister, so as to say that their was no blood lines.

But Ben Ali, who came to office swearing an end to the concept of “president-for-life,” has allowed his in-laws to accumulate power and position themselves for succession. Ben Ali’s only son is about 4 , his two daughters are too young and his birth family is more interested in making (rather stealing) money than politics. But his wife, Leila Trabelis Ben Ali, is very ambitious. A former salon owner with no skills or intelligence, she has nonetheless built a business empire through Mafia-like tactics. Her brother Belhassan, a high school dropout, is at the helm of that empire. It is widely known that Leila aspires to be president, in the last few years she has been giving a lot of speeches and even obtained (rather bought) a law degree from a French university (though she is not a registered lawyer in Tunisia for reasons too long to explain here). Her brother, who she fiercely protects, may also harbor similar ambitious. But if any family member takes over it will likely be Ben Ali son-in-law Mohamed Sakhr Materi.

Born into a modest family, he married Ben Ali’s notorious partying daughter. The young man feigns piousness, but is a phony (I once saw him going out to party with two girls and a friend, his wife wasn’t there, and he was driving a Bentley). How did he afford such a car? Using his new connections to acquire state funds and companies. He recently bought a +$1 million home in Montreal. The home operates as a gateway house in case Ben Ali dies and a new political order takes place that would rightfully prosecute him and the Trabelsi and the Ben Ali for their theft.

Materi is seeking to prevent a day like that from ever happening by being president himself. He recently “won” a seat in parliament, and is seeking to build party support for his candidacy.

Ben Ali at least has some concern for the well being of Tunisia, but if any of the professional Trabelsi or Materi thieves took over the country would be ruined as it would be turned into nothing more than a vehicle to enrich the endlessly greedy Trabelsi-Materi clan. Forbid that day.