Because of some anarchic rule the states of New Jersey and Virginia both hold their gubernatorial elections in off-odd years. Because they are the only states hosting state-wide election in 2009, they receive a lot more media attention than the typical governor’s race.

That is because the national media and political parties often look toward the election results as a sign of public sentiment before the following mid-term election. In 2005, the Democrats won both seats. The governor’s mansion were then both held by Democrats, but the election was an open race with no incumbent. The victory of Tim Keine in Virginia in a close election against a charismatic Republican raised the hopes of a then demoralized Democratic party that the tide may be turning their way.

The Democrats’ victory in 2005 was followed by the party taking control of both Houses of Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections.

2005 was not the only foreshadowing. In 1993 Republican Christine Todd Whitman won an upset victory over Democrat Jim Florio in New Jersey. The following year the Republican swept to Congress winning both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the latter for the first time in 40 years.

Today’s demoralized Republican, in the same mold of Democrats in 2005, is hoping that their party will mimic the Democrats in ‘05 and their own forebears, if you will, in ‘03 by winning at least one governor’s race.

Virginia has two Democratic senators, the state senate is majority Democratic, the state hasn’t had a Republican governor for eight years and it is doing better than the rest of the country economically. It northern suburbs, the key to winning the state, are also quite liberal. The race there is close, which may dismay the Democrats but in a state where the Democrats have become so dominant the Republicans can take some heart that the race is even close for them.

New Jersey portends better fortunes for the GOP. Democratic Governor Jon Crozine, who unlike his Virginia counterpart can seek reelection, is down by 12 points in the polls against his Republican opponent: former federal prosecutor Chris Christie. Only a third of New Jersey voters approve of the job he is doing and only 12% say that he has had a major accomplishment in four years in office (This is not true; Crozine’s is the first one in 60 years to reduce the size of the state government and he has cut property taxes).

President Obama recently held two rallies with Corzine to shore up support, and to get the thousands of new voters who supported Obama to vote for Corzine.

The election is months away, so opinion mean nothing now as a week is a lifetime in American politics; as the saying goes.

But if the Republicans win in either state [or both], they will hold up their victory as an early referendum on Obama’s presidency. The Obama White House certainly does not want the appearance of a loss to hit them within the first year and the president will be more visibly supportive of both Democrats as the election nears. Whether his presence will be an asset by then is not clear either. Either way, there will no escaping that the way the elections play out will be at least some indication of the public mood.